Ward 24 — Scarborough-Guildwood

The race

• Office: Councillor, Ward 24 - Scarborough-Guildwood
• Seats: 1
• Incumbent: Paul Ainslie — running in 2026: yes
• Open seat: unknown
• Filed candidates (as of 2026-08-16): 3
• Competitiveness tier (this dataset's own label, provisional): U-unknown — Incumbent registration unknown; 1 registrants as of 2026-07-23. Provisional until nominations close 2026-08-21.

The math — 2022 baseline

• Turnout: 26.53% — this ward’s own 2022 turnout (16,999 of 64,080 eligible electors cast a ballot, all voting methods), against a citywide 2022 figure of 29.66% (563,124 of 1,898,750). Per-ward figures were compiled 2026-08-15 from the City Clerk’s “Elections – Voter Statistics” 2022 dataset. This is 2022 municipal turnout — not a federal figure, and not comparable to one without saying so.
• Margin: 65.4 percentage points — the 2022 winner’s margin over the runner-up, as a share of votes cast in this ward.
• Acclaimed in 2022: no
• Vote counts: the ward cast 16,999 ballots in 2022, so a 65.4-point margin is on the order of 11,100 votes. Treat that as an order of magnitude, not a count: the ballots-cast figure is every ballot cast in the ward across all offices on that ballot, and this dataset carries no per-candidate vote totals, so the councillor race’s own valid-vote base is somewhat smaller.

The hook — a block party decides this

The 2022 margin in this ward was 65.4 percentage points of a ward that cast 16,999 ballots — roughly 11,100 votes between first and second place. A real cushion, not a squeaker: closing a gap that size takes more than one block party’s worth of neighbours — more like several blocks organizing together.

Filed candidates (3, alphabetical by surname — no ordering by prominence)

Receipt

• Race facts (seats, incumbent, margin, acclaimed, tier): the project’s own election dataset, ON-toronto-council-w24, source https://www.toronto.ca/data/elections/candidate_list/councilorCandidates_2026.json, as of 2026-08-16.
• This ward’s own 2022 turnout: City of Toronto, City Clerk’s Office, “Elections – Voter Statistics” 2022 dataset — all 25 wards compiled 2026-08-15, each percentage recomputed from the ward’s own elector and ballot integers.
• Candidate list: the project’s own candidate dataset, ON-toronto-council-w24, as of 2026-08-16.
• Full per-candidate detail (website, public contact) and the correction process: Toronto’s municipality page.
• Figures come from this project’s own published election dataset, regenerated from its source records.
• Provisional — nominations close 2026-08-21.